FT · Italy: Serie A · Sunday, 11 October 2026
Cagliari 1–1 JuventusMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 11 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Juventus or draw at 80%. Bawler had Cagliari at 20%, the draw at 25% and Juventus at 55%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Cagliari win
20%
Draw
25%
Result
Juventus win
55%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
0.9 – 1.7
Total 2.7
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−0.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.5 – 1.9
From the match itself
The match produced 0.7 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Juventus or draw
Pre-match: 80%
Landed
Medium confidence
Both teams to score
Pre-match: 51%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 28%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.