FT · Italy: Serie A · Monday, 12 October 2026
Atalanta 3–1 VeneziaMatch recap & how our call landed · Monday, 12 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Atalanta to win at 61%. Bawler had Atalanta at 61%, the draw at 22% and Venezia at 18%. The match finished 3–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Atalanta win
61%
Result
Draw
22%
Venezia win
18%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.1 – 1.1
Total 3.2
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+0.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.1 – 2.6
From the match itself
The match produced 0.8 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Atalanta to win
Pre-match: 61%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 40%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.