FT · ITALY: Serie A · Monday, 31 August 2026
Atalanta 1–0 BolognaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Monday, 31 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Atalanta at 46%, draw at 26%, Bologna at 27%. The match ended 1-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Atalanta.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Atalanta win
46%
Actual ✓
Draw
26%
Bologna win
27%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.58 – 1.17
Total 2.75
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (-1.7 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.7 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 76%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
1X
Pre-match: 73%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 30%
✗ Lost