FT · Italy: Serie A · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Udinese 0–1 CagliariMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 19 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Udinese at 44%, draw at 27%, Cagliari at 29%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-1. The model's headline call was Udinese to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Udinese win
44%
Draw
27%
Cagliari win
29%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.53 – 1.19
Total 2.72
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (-1.7 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.7 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 76%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 51%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals sits at 72% confidence, fueled by Udinese's 0.34 expected-goals edge and 44% win probability at home against a Cagliari side posting just 1.11 xG."