FT · Italy: Serie A · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Atalanta 1–2 CagliariMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 12 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Atalanta at 56%, draw at 24%, Cagliari at 20%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-2. The model's headline call was Atalanta to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Atalanta win
56%
Draw
24%
Cagliari win
20%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.80 – 0.98
Total 2.77
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.2 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.2 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 76%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 52%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals ranks as the high-confidence forecast at 76%, anchored on Atalanta's 0.82 expected-goal advantage and their striker Mateo Retegui commanding 28% of team creation."