FT · ITALY: Serie A · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Cagliari 0–1 InternazionaleMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 30 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Cagliari at 18%, draw at 24%, Internazionale at 59%. The match ended 0-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Internazionale.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Cagliari win
18%
Draw
24%
Internazionale win
59%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
0.93 – 1.87
Total 2.81
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (-1.8 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.8 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
X2
Pre-match: 82%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 53%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 31%
✗ Lost