AS Roma vs Real Madrid prediction — Champions League · Wed 14 Oct · 20:00 UK

Champions League · Wed 14 Oct · 20:00 UK
38AS Roma win25Draw37Real Madrid win
Full time
3–4

How it finished

Real Madrid beat AS Roma 4–3. AS Roma had 14 shots (7 on target) to Real Madrid's 16 (8), with 54% of the ball against 46%. Expected goals finished 1.4 to 1.8.

AS RomaFull-time statsReal Madrid
54%Possession46%
1.4Expected goals (xG)1.8
14Shots16
7Shots on target8
9Shots inside box11
3Big chances3
5Corners9
4Saves4
15Fouls8
1Offsides1
3Yellow cards1
We predicted
2–1
Likeliest score if AS Roma win (8%). Single likeliest exact score: 1–1 (11%)
Expected goals
1.6v1.6
3.2 in total
Both teams score
64%
Yes
3+ goals
63%
Likely

What we expected from each side

The grey number is their average over the last six.

AS RomaAS RomaReal MadridReal Madrid
1.6Goals1.6
12.4Shots11.3
5.1On target6.4
4.5Corners6.6
AS RomaAS RomaReal MadridReal Madrid
0.7Goals0.7
5.8Shots5.5
2.3On target3.1
2.1Corners3.1
AS RomaAS RomaReal MadridReal Madrid
1.0Goals0.9
6.7Shots5.7
2.8On target3.3
2.4Corners3.5

What we said the chances were

2 or more goals83%
AS Roma to score80%
Real Madrid to score80%
Goal before half-time75%

First half — what we expected

AS Roma
49%
to score before half-time
Real Madrid
52%
to score before half-time

First half — what we expected

How likely we said each side was to reach these totals before half-time.

AS RomaAS RomaReal MadridReal Madrid
62%5+ shots59%
36%7+ shots33%
63%2+ shots on target78%
22%4+ shots on target38%
57%2+ corners76%
19%4+ corners37%

League position

Real Madrid in their league tableTop quarter
Full-time recap →
Every Bawler's pick is logged before kickoff · Bawler's pick record →

Around this fixture

Serie A table →LaLiga table →
All fixtures & results →AS Roma form →Real Madrid form →

Common questions

Who won AS Roma vs Real Madrid?

Real Madrid beat AS Roma 4–3. AS Roma had 14 shots (7 on target) to Real Madrid's 16 (8), with 54% of the ball against 46%. Expected goals finished 1.4 to 1.8.

What was the final score in AS Roma vs Real Madrid?

AS Roma 3–4 Real Madrid, played on 14 Oct 2026 in the Europe: Champions League. Bawler's model had gone into it with AS Roma 38%, the draw 25% and Real Madrid 37%.

What were the stats in AS Roma vs Real Madrid?

Full-time: Possession 54%–46%, Expected goals (xG) 1.4–1.8, Shots 14–16, Shots on target 7–8, Shots inside box 9–11, Big chances 3–3, Corners 5–9, Saves 4–4, Fouls 15–8, Offsides 1–1, Yellow cards 3–1.

Did both teams score in AS Roma vs Real Madrid?

Yes — both AS Roma and Real Madrid scored, finishing 3–4. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 64% before kickoff.