What we expect
In plain English
AS Roma are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. They have won four of their last six. Expect goals: the model sees around three.
What would change the call
AS Roma or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who will win AS Roma vs Real Madrid?
Bawler's model rates this match: AS Roma are favoured (39% win probability vs 37% for Real Madrid, 24% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for AS Roma vs Real Madrid?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is AS Roma 1-1 Real Madrid (10.6% probability). Expected total goals: 3.31.
How does Bawler predict AS Roma vs Real Madrid?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives AS Roma 39%, the draw 24% and Real Madrid 37%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Real Madrid?
BTTS: Yes (65% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.68 and away expected goals 1.63.
Over or under 2.5 goals in AS Roma vs Real Madrid?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.31. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).