FT · Spain: La Liga · Sunday, 18 October 2026
Real Madrid 4–1 SevillaMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 18 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Real Madrid to win at 71%. Bawler had Real Madrid at 71%, the draw at 18% and Sevilla at 11%. The match finished 4–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Real Madrid win
71%
Result
Draw
18%
Sevilla win
11%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.4 – 0.9
Total 3.3
Actual
4 – 1
Total 5 (+1.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.2 – 0.8
From the match itself
The match produced 1.7 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Real Madrid to win
Pre-match: 71%
Landed
Medium confidence
Both teams to score
Pre-match: 53%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.