FT · Spain: La Liga · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Atlético Madrid 2–1 Real MadridMatch recap · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Pre-match probability vs result
Atlético Madrid win
33%
Result
Draw
24%
Real Madrid win
42%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.8
Total 3.3
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (−0.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.4 – 0.3
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.3 of our 3.3.