FT · Europe: Champions League · Tuesday, 20 October 2026
AS Roma 4–0 Slovan BratislavaMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 20 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was AS Roma to win at 79%. Bawler had AS Roma at 79%, the draw at 14% and Slovan Bratislava at 7%. The match finished 4–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
AS Roma win
79%
Result
Draw
14%
Slovan Bratislava win
7%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.8 – 0.8
Total 3.6
Actual
4 – 0
Total 4 (+0.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
3.6 – 0.0
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.4 of our 3.6.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
AS Roma to win
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Medium confidence
Both teams to score
Pre-match: 51%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Roma's 2.93 expected goals versus Bratislava's 0.80 underpins an 80% Home Win forecast, with Dybala's creative presence sharpening the hosts' attacking edge."