FT · Italy: Serie A · Saturday, 19 September 2026
AS Roma 2–2 InternazionaleMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 19 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had AS Roma at 37%, draw at 26%, Internazionale at 37%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-2. The model's headline call was AS Roma to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Roma win
37%
Draw
26%
Actual ✓
Internazionale win
37%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.50 – 1.48
Total 2.98
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+1.0 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.0 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 80%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 76% as Roma's creator Dybala and Inter's striker Martínez combine for 52% of their teams' expected output in a fixture where combined xG reaches 2.74."