FT · Europe: Champions League · Wednesday, 21 October 2026
Real Madrid 4–1 RB LeipzigMatch recap · Wednesday, 21 October 2026
Pre-match probability vs result
Real Madrid win
63%
Result
Draw
19%
RB Leipzig win
18%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.5 – 1.3
Total 3.8
Actual
4 – 1
Total 5 (+1.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.9 – 1.4
From the match itself
The match produced 1.2 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.