FT · Italy: Serie A · Saturday, 17 October 2026
AS Roma 2–0 GenoaMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 17 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was AS Roma or draw at 83%. Bawler had AS Roma at 59%, the draw at 23% and Genoa at 17%. The match finished 2–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
AS Roma win
59%
Result
Draw
23%
Genoa win
17%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.9 – 0.9
Total 2.8
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (−0.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.4 – 0.5
From the match itself
The match produced 0.8 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
AS Roma or draw
Pre-match: 83%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 53%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 31%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.