FT · Spain: La Liga · Sunday, 25 October 2026
Barcelona 1–2 Real MadridMatch recap · Sunday, 25 October 2026
Pre-match probability vs result
Barcelona win
54%
Draw
22%
Real Madrid win
25%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.2 – 1.5
Total 3.6
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (−0.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.2 – 2.0
From the match itself
The match produced 0.6 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.