FT · Europe: Champions League · Wednesday, 14 October 2026
AS Roma 3–4 Real MadridMatch recap & how our call landed · Wednesday, 14 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was AS Roma or draw at 63%. Bawler had AS Roma at 38%, the draw at 25% and Real Madrid at 37%. The match finished 3–4.
Pre-match probability vs result
AS Roma win
38%
Draw
25%
Real Madrid win
37%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.6
Total 3.2
Actual
3 – 4
Total 7 (+3.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.4 – 1.8
From the match itself
The match produced 3.8 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 83%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.