Bawler's model rates this match: AS Roma are favoured (47% win probability vs 26% for Atalanta, 27% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is AS Roma 1-1 Atalanta (12.8% probability). Expected total goals: 2.63.
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives AS Roma 47%, the draw 27% and Atalanta 26%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
BTTS: Yes (52% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.54 and away expected goals 1.09.
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.63. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).