FT · ITALY: Serie A · Monday, 31 August 2026
Lecce 0–4 AS RomaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Monday, 31 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Lecce at 19%, draw at 25%, AS Roma at 56%. The match ended 0-4 — confirming the model's lean toward AS Roma.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Lecce win
19%
Draw
25%
Roma win
56%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
0.88 – 1.69
Total 2.57
Actual
0 – 4
Total 4 (+1.4 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.4 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
X2
Pre-match: 81%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 26%
✓ Won