FT · ITALY: Serie A · Monday, 24 August 2026
AS Roma 4–0 FiorentinaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Monday, 24 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had AS Roma at 51%, draw at 26%, Fiorentina at 23%. The match ended 4-0 — confirming the model's lean toward AS Roma.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Roma win
51%
Actual ✓
Draw
26%
Fiorentina win
23%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.69 – 1.07
Total 2.76
Actual
4 – 0
Total 4 (+1.2 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.2 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 77%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 52%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 30%
✓ Won