FT · ITALY: Serie A · Monday, 24 August 2026
AS Roma 4–0 FiorentinaMatch recap & how our call landed · Monday, 24 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was AS Roma or draw at 77%. Bawler had AS Roma at 51%, the draw at 26% and Fiorentina at 23%. The match finished 4–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
AS Roma win
51%
Result
Draw
26%
Fiorentina win
23%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.1
Total 2.8
Actual
4 – 0
Total 4 (+1.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.8 – 0.3
From the match itself
The match produced 1.2 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
AS Roma or draw
Pre-match: 77%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 52%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 30%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.