FT · Italy: Serie A · Monday, 14 September 2026
Torino 0–2 AS RomaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Monday, 14 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Torino at 25%, draw at 26%, AS Roma at 49%. The match ended 0-2 — confirming the model's lean toward AS Roma.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Torino win
25%
Draw
26%
Roma win
49%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.11 – 1.64
Total 2.75
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (-0.7 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.7 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 76%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 52%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Home Win
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals lands at 76% confidence because Roma's 1.64 xG edge and 0.52 gap advantage over Torino's 1.11 suggests the visitor's creator Paulo Dybala will unlock enough chances to push the total past the line."