FT · Europe: Champions League · Thursday, 10 September 2026
Fenerbahce 1–1 AS RomaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 10 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Fenerbahce at 35%, draw at 26%, AS Roma at 39%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was AS Roma to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Fenerbahce win
35%
Draw
26%
Actual ✓
Roma win
39%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.46 – 1.55
Total 3.01
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-1.0 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.0 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 80%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 80% confidence as both sides generate near-identical attacking threat—Fenerbahce 1.47 xG, Roma 1.55 with Paulo Dybala's creative influence—leaving the model's call for an open encounter in Istanbul."