FT · ITALY: Serie A · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Atalanta 2–1 SassuoloMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 23 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Atalanta at 55%, draw at 24%, Sassuolo at 21%. The match ended 2-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Atalanta.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Atalanta win
55%
Actual ✓
Draw
24%
Sassuolo win
21%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.85 – 1.05
Total 2.90
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.1 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.1 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 79%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 33%
✗ Lost