Bawler's model rates this match: Al Ittihad are favoured (71% win probability vs 11% for Al-Faisaly, 17% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Al-Faisaly 0-2 Al Ittihad (10.1% probability). Expected total goals: 3.43.
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Al-Faisaly 11%, the draw 17% and Al Ittihad 71%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
BTTS: Yes (55% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 0.93 and away expected goals 2.50.
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.43. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).