FT · Saudi Arabia: Saudi Pro League · Wednesday, 26 August 2026

Al-Faisaly 1–1 Al FatehMatch recap & how our call landed · Wednesday, 26 August 2026

Our call before kickoff

Our call missed

Before kickoff our call was Al Fateh to win at 65%. Bawler had Al-Faisaly at 15%, the draw at 20% and Al Fateh at 65%. The match finished 1–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

Al-Faisaly win
15%
Draw
20%
Result
Al Fateh win
65%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.0 – 2.3
Total 3.3
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−1.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.4 – 1.7
From the match itself

The match produced 1.3 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Al Fateh to win
Pre-match: 65%
Missed
Outside shot
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 37%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Al Fateh's away win is the model's high-confidence call at 80%, backed by a decisive 2.11 xG advantage that reflects their superior chance creation."

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