Pre-match, Bawler had Al-Faisaly at 15%, draw at 20%, Al Fateh at 65%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was Al Fateh to win.
Match underperformed xG by 1.3 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.