Bawler / USA: MLS / Toronto

Team profile · USA: MLS

Toronto Prediction

Form, fixtures and every settled pick · updated 13 August 2026

Matches

10 settled

Goals for

1.12

Expected, per match

Goals against

1.50

Expected, per match

High-confidence accuracy

70%

7/10 calls

Toronto prediction: for Toronto's next match — Toronto vs New England Revolution on Saturday 15 Aug, 23:30 UTC — Bawler's model makes it a Toronto win looks most likely (40%). The model's strongest call is Over 1.5 Goals.

Toronto sit close to the MLS average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.12 expected goals a game and conceding 1.50. They have struggled lately, losing 2 of their last 5. Next up is New England Revolution, where the model makes this close to a coin toss at 40%.

Next match

Home vs New England Revolution · Saturday 15 Aug, 23:30 UTC

Win

40%

Toronto

Draw

32%

Loss

28%

Opponent

High confidence · Over 1.5 Goals @ 79%

Full match preview

Form pulse

The last 5 settled results, most recent first.

@ New England Revolution

Record

1W 5D 4L

Real goals

1.2 – 1.7

For / against, per match

Attack vs defence

How Toronto compare with the USA: MLS average, per match.

Goals for

1.12

Below average

Goals against

1.50

Leakier than most

Scored1.12

Conceded1.50

The grey line on each bar is the USA: MLS average (1.48 scored, 1.45 conceded).

What the data says

Misfiring in attack

Averaging 1.12 xG per match · -0.36 above the USA: MLS average of 1.48.

Model is strongest on: Result

High-confidence calls in this market are correct 80% of the time on Toronto fixtures (4/5).

📊 Toronto in numbers

44 competitive matches · friendlies excluded

1.1

Goals · per game

let in 1.4

🏠 1.2✈️ 1.0

4.4

Corners · per game

give up 5.7

🏠 4.6✈️ 4.2

10.4

Shots · per game

faced 12.6

🏠 11.3✈️ 9.6

3.7

On target · per game

faced 4.9

🏠 4.1✈️ 3.3

🗓️ Last 6 games

31 Jul

1-1

@ New York City

🚩 -

25 Jul

1-2

@ D.C. United

🚩 5-8

22 Jul

0-0

@ New England Revolution

🚩 9-7

16 Jul

0-0

@ CF Montréal

🚩 3-9

24 May

1-2

@ Chicago Fire

🚩 4-3

16 May

1-3

@ Charlotte

🚩 3-7

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's tips →

Model accuracy on Toronto matches

70%

of high-confidence calls correct, over 10

When the model makes a high-confidence call on a Toronto fixture, it is right 7 out of 10 (70%). This is well above the cross-league baseline of ~65%. Every prediction is logged before kickoff and settled publicly.

Model accuracy on Toronto by market

Goals (Over/Under)60%3/5

Result80%4/5

How to read this: each row groups settled high-confidence calls the model made on Toronto fixtures by market type, so you can see where the model has the strongest read on this team. Higher hit rate = more reliable category for Toronto matches.