Match prediction·USA: MLS·Saturday 15 Aug, 23:30 UTC

Toronto FC vs New England Revolution

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

📊 Win probability
40.2% home31.9% draw27.9% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
Toronto FCstepNew England Revolution
1.40Base xG · rolling 26-match1.10
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.40Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.10

Toronto average 4.6 corners per game at home this season (21 competitive matches). New England Revolution average 4.5 corners per game away from home this season (20 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
9
5
2
1
1
11
13
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
3
4
4
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
79%
Over 2.5 goals
50%
New England Revolution to win
23%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Most likely to score or assist

To score
Harry Kane
New England Revolution · Bayern Munich
60%
To score
Bukayo Saka
New England Revolution · Arsenal
42%
To score
Jude Bellingham
New England Revolution · Real Madrid
36%

Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.

More predictions for these teams

Toronto vs New England Revolution — Head-to-Head

In 1 recorded meeting since 22 July 2026, Toronto have won 0, New England Revolution have won 0, with 1 drawn. This covers only matches in Bawler's own settled ledger — not an all-time head-to-head record.

DateResultCompetition
22 July 2026New England Revolution 00 TorontoUSA: MLS

The model's verdict for this fixture: Toronto 40% · draw 32% · New England Revolution 28%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.