FT · USA: MLS · Saturday, 01 August 2026
New York City FC 1–1 Toronto FCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 01 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had New York City FC at 43%, draw at 31%, Toronto FC at 25%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was New York City FC to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
FC win
43%
Draw
31%
Actual ✓
FC win
25%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.52 – 1.11
Total 2.64
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-0.6 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.6 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 69%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
BTTS No
Pre-match: 50%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 19%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals at 69% probability is the lock here—New York City's 0.41 xG advantage and Martínez leading their attack sets up a low-scoring but inevitable breakthrough."