FT · USA: MLS · Friday, 17 July 2026
CF Montréal 0–0 Toronto FCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Friday, 17 July 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had CF Montréal at 43%, draw at 31%, Toronto FC at 26%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-0. The model's headline call was CF Montréal to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Montréal win
43%
Draw
31%
Actual ✓
FC win
26%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.56 – 1.17
Total 2.73
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (-2.7 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.7 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 74%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Away Win
Pre-match: 23%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals lands at 74% probability because Montréal's 0.40 expected-goal edge and superior 1.56 xG output creates a ceiling-breaching attacking mismatch Toronto's 1.17 xG simply cannot defend."