FT · USA: MLS · Thursday, 23 July 2026
New England Revolution 0–0 Toronto FCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 23 July 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had New England Revolution at 40%, draw at 32%, Toronto FC at 28%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-0. The model's headline call was New England Revolution to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Revolution win
40%
Draw
32%
Actual ✓
FC win
28%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.42 – 1.15
Total 2.57
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (-2.6 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.6 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 69%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
BTTS Yes
Pre-match: 51%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 20%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 69% because New England's attacking threat—led by Kane at 22% of team xG—outweighs Toronto's defensive capacity in a fixture where combined xG reaches 2.57."