FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 26 July 2026
D.C. United 2–1 Toronto FCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 26 July 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had D.C. United at 43%, draw at 32%, Toronto FC at 25%. The match ended 2-1 — confirming the model's lean toward D.C. United.
> Pre-match probability vs result
United win
43%
Actual ✓
Draw
32%
FC win
25%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.46 – 1.05
Total 2.51
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.5 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.5 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 68%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 50%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 20%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals sits at 68% probability because D.C. United's 0.40 xG advantage and dominant shot creation (1.46 xG vs 1.05) should pressure Toronto into an open, goal-heavy contest at home."