What we expect
In plain English
Rayo Vallecano are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. Athletic Club have won four of the last five between them. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
Rayo Vallecano or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club?
Bawler's model rates this match: Rayo Vallecano are favoured (44% win probability vs 29% for Athletic Club, 27% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Athletic Club (12.8% probability). Expected total goals: 2.70.
How does Bawler predict Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Rayo Vallecano 44%, the draw 27% and Athletic Club 29%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club?
BTTS: Yes (54% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.51 and away expected goals 1.18.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.70. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).