Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelRayo Vallecano on top, and Sergio Camello getting plenty of shots away.
Rayo Vallecano v Valencia prediction
Our model gives Rayo Vallecano 46%, the draw 27% and Valencia 27%, so Rayo Vallecano start as favourites. Our predicted score is Rayo Vallecano 1–0 Valencia: the most likely score if Rayo Vallecano win, at 11%. Rayo Vallecano are expected to score 1.5 goals and Valencia 1.1, 2.6 between them. Both teams scoring is 53% and three or more goals comes in at 49%.
Sergio Camello is the player we expect to shoot most: 3.5 shots and 1.4 on target for Rayo Vallecano, if they start. For cards, Pathé Ciss (Rayo Vallecano) has been booked once every 2 games in 2026/27, more often than anyone else here. On form, Rayo Vallecano have two wins, three draws and one defeat from their last six games, and Valencia have two wins, two draws and two defeats.
Of their last five meetings on our records, Rayo Vallecano have won one, Valencia none, and four were drawn. When they last met, it finished Valencia 1–1 Rayo Vallecano, in May 2026. On shots, our forecast is 17.5 for Rayo Vallecano and 9.9 for Valencia, with 5.7 and 2.7 on target, and corners at 6.3 to 4.1. So we expect Rayo Vallecano to do more of the shooting. For Bawler's pick we have gone with Rayo Vallecano or Draw, Rayo Vallecano Over 13.5 Shots and Sergio Camello 2+ Shots. The chance all three land is 50% on our numbers, so the fair price is Evens, or 2.02.
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most shots
Shots we expect them to takeMost booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Rayo Vallecano · last 6
Valencia · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Rayo Vallecano or draw is 73% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
LaLiga table →Common questions
Who will win Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia?
Bawler's model rates this match: Rayo Vallecano are favoured (46% win probability vs 27% for Valencia, 27% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia?
Bawler's predicted score is Rayo Vallecano 1-0 Valencia: the most likely score if Rayo Vallecano win, which is the likeliest result (46%). Our model puts that exact score at 10.7%. Expected total goals: 2.6.
How does Bawler predict Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Rayo Vallecano 46%, the draw 27% and Valencia 27%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 53% chance. That is based on Rayo Vallecano expecting 1.53 goals and Valencia 1.11.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia?
Bawler's model expects 2.6 goals in total. It leans slightly towards two goals or fewer: over 2.5 goals is 49%.
When are the Rayo Vallecano v Valencia line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Rayo Vallecano v Valencia?
Rayo Vallecano or Draw (73%), Rayo Vallecano Over 13.5 Shots (77%), Sergio Camello 2+ Shots (80%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 50% chance, a fair price of Evens (2.02). 18+, please gamble responsibly.