Villarreal vs Deportivo prediction — LaLiga · Sat 5 Sept · 20:00 UK

LaLiga · Sat 5 Sept · 20:00 UK
Villarreal 63Draw 22Deportivo 16
Our call before kickoff
63%
Villarreal to win
Missed
3.0
Goals expected
Full time
Final 2–3
Goal before half-time (before kick-off)
79%
Both teams score (before kick-off)
53%
3+ goals (before kick-off)
58%

How it finished

Deportivo beat Villarreal 3–2. Bawler's model favoured Villarreal at 63% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Deportivo 16%. It forecast 3.0 goals; the match produced 5. Villarreal had 17 shots (5 on target) to Deportivo's 8 (3), with 62% of the ball against 38%.

VillarrealFull-time statsDeportivo
62%Possession38%
17Shots8
5Shots on target3
7Corners1
0Saves4
14Fouls14
2Offsides1
2Yellow cards2
What we publishedBeforeAfter
Our callVillarreal to win 63%Deportivo won (16% called)
Total goals3.05
Both teams to score53%Yes

Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.

What we expected

What we expected before kickoff.

VillarrealDeportivo
2.1
Goals+1.1
0.9
15.0
Shots+9.1
6.0
5.5
Corners+0.4
5.8
VillarrealDeportivo
0.7
Goals+0.3
0.3
7.2
Shots+4.5
2.7
2.6
Corners+0.2
2.7
VillarrealDeportivo
1.4
Goals+0.8
0.6
7.9
Shots+4.6
3.2
2.9
Corners+0.2
3.1

Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.

Our numbers, most likely first

What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.

MarketProbability
Villarreal to score87%
Over 1.5 goals80%
Under 3.5 goals64%
Deportivo to score61%

First half — what we expected

Villarreal
68%
to score before half-time
Deportivo
34%
to score before half-time

Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 79%

VillarrealDeportivo
7.21st-half shots2.7
2.91st-half shots on target1.9
2.61st-half corners2.7

First-half chances

66%Chance of 6+ shots10%
42%Chance of 8+ shots<10%
75%Chance of 2+ shots on target54%
34%Chance of 4+ shots on target16%
67%Chance of 2+ corners71%
27%Chance of 4+ corners30%

How the match splits

1st half2nd half
Shots · Villarreal7.27.9
Shots · Deportivo2.73.2
Shots on target · Villarreal2.93.0
Shots on target · Deportivo1.92.4
Corners · Villarreal2.62.9
Corners · Deportivo2.73.1
How to read this

First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).

Model inputs

Expected goals gap (home minus away)+1.1 / match
Head-to-head, last 5Villarreal 1 · Draws 3 · Deportivo 1
Deportivo in their league tableUpper half

Head to head

May 2018Deportivo A Coruña 2–4 Villarreal
Jan 2018Villarreal 1–1 Deportivo A Coruña
May 2017Villarreal 0–0 Deportivo A Coruña
Jan 2017Deportivo A Coruña 0–0 Villarreal
Aug 2016Deportivo A Coruña 2–0 Villarreal
Full-time recap →
Settles publicly at full time · Bitcoin-anchored · verify →

Common questions

Who won Villarreal vs Deportivo?

Deportivo beat Villarreal 3–2. Bawler's model favoured Villarreal at 63% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Deportivo 16%. It forecast 3.0 goals; the match produced 5. Villarreal had 17 shots (5 on target) to Deportivo's 8 (3), with 62% of the ball against 38%.

What was the final score in Villarreal vs Deportivo?

Villarreal 2–3 Deportivo, played on 05 Sept 2026 in the Spain: La Liga. Bawler's model had gone into it with Villarreal 63%, the draw 22% and Deportivo 16%.

What were the stats in Villarreal vs Deportivo?

Full-time: Possession 62%–38%, Shots 17–8, Shots on target 5–3, Corners 7–1, Saves 0–4, Fouls 14–14, Offsides 2–1, Yellow cards 2–2.

Did both teams score in Villarreal vs Deportivo?

Yes — both Villarreal and Deportivo scored, finishing 2–3. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 53% before kickoff.

Was Bawler's prediction for Villarreal vs Deportivo right?

Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Villarreal to win 63%, it finished Deportivo won (16% called); Total goals — we said 3.0, it finished 5; Both teams to score — we said 53%, it finished Yes.

Around this fixture

LaLiga table →
All fixtures & results →Villarreal form →Deportivo form →