Bawler's model rates this match: Villarreal are favoured (62% win probability vs 16% for Deportivo, 22% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Villarreal 1-0 Deportivo (11.0% probability). Expected total goals: 2.88.
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Villarreal 62%, the draw 22% and Deportivo 16%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
BTTS: Yes (51% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.98 and away expected goals 0.90.
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.88. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).