FT · SPAIN: LaLiga · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Atlético Madrid 2–2 VillarrealMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Atlético Madrid or draw at 73%. Bawler had Atlético Madrid at 48%, the draw at 25% and Villarreal at 27%. The match finished 2–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Atlético Madrid win
48%
Draw
25%
Result
Villarreal win
27%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.3
Total 3.1
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+0.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.7 – 3.6
From the match itself
The match produced 0.9 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 81%
Landed
Medium confidence
Atlético Madrid or draw
Pre-match: 73%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 37%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.