FT · SPAIN: LaLiga · Monday, 24 August 2026
Málaga 1–1 DeportivoMatch recap & how our call landed · Monday, 24 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Málaga or draw at 74%. Bawler had Málaga at 48%, the draw at 26% and Deportivo at 26%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Málaga win
48%
Draw
26%
Result
Deportivo win
26%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.1
Total 2.8
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−0.8 against our forecast)
The match produced 0.8 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 77%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 53%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.