FT · SPAIN: LaLiga · Monday, 24 August 2026
Málaga 1–1 DeportivoMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Monday, 24 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Málaga at 48%, draw at 26%, Deportivo at 26%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was Málaga to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Málaga win
48%
Draw
26%
Actual ✓
Deportivo win
26%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.63 – 1.15
Total 2.78
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-0.8 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.8 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 77%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 53%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✓ Won