FT · Spain: La Liga · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Deportivo 1–1 Real BetisMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 20 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Deportivo at 35%, draw at 26%, Real Betis at 39%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was Real Betis to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Deportivo win
35%
Draw
26%
Actual ✓
Betis win
39%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.41 – 1.49
Total 2.90
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-0.9 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.9 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 79%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 76% with both sides combining for 2.76 expected goals, suggesting Deportivo's home setup will generate enough attacking threat to overcome Real Betis' marginal 11-point edge in win probability."