FT · Spain: La Liga · Monday, 14 September 2026
Villarreal 1–2 Real BetisMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Monday, 14 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Villarreal at 47%, draw at 26%, Real Betis at 27%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-2. The model's headline call was Villarreal to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Villarreal win
47%
Draw
26%
Betis win
27%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.67 – 1.22
Total 2.89
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.1 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.1 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 78%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
1X
Pre-match: 73%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 33%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals sits at 78% forecast confidence because Villarreal's 1.67 expected goals and Gerard Moreno's 24% shot creation edge the visitors' 1.22 xG in a matchup built for an open, multi-goal script."