FT · Spain: La Liga · Wednesday, 16 September 2026
Deportivo 0–1 SevillaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Wednesday, 16 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Deportivo at 42%, draw at 27%, Sevilla at 30%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-1. The model's headline call was Deportivo to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Deportivo win
42%
Draw
27%
Sevilla win
30%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.46 – 1.20
Total 2.66
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (-1.7 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.7 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 74%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals sits at 74% in a fixture where Deportivo's 1.46 xG gives the hosts a narrow edge in a low-variance matchup projected at 2.66 combined chances."