FT · Spain: La Liga · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Villarreal 2–3 DeportivoMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 05 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Villarreal at 63%, draw at 22%, Deportivo at 16%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-3. The model's headline call was Villarreal to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Villarreal win
63%
Draw
22%
Deportivo win
16%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.08 – 0.94
Total 3.02
Actual
2 – 3
Total 5 (+2.0 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 2.0 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 63%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 36%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Villarreal's title ambitions collide with Deportivo's survival fight, and the 2.17 xG advantage makes a **Home Win** the model's 65% call."