FT · SPAIN: LaLiga · Monday, 17 August 2026
Deportivo 1–1 ElcheMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Monday, 17 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Deportivo at 53%, draw at 30%, Elche at 17%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was Deportivo to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Deportivo win
53%
Draw
30%
Actual ✓
Elche win
17%
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 78%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 53%
✓ Won
Outside shot
X2
Pre-match: 27%
✓ Won