FT · SPAIN: LaLiga · Monday, 17 August 2026
Deportivo 1–1 ElcheMatch recap & how our call landed · Monday, 17 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Deportivo or draw at 83%. Bawler had Deportivo at 53%, the draw at 30% and Elche at 17%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Deportivo win
53%
Draw
30%
Result
Elche win
17%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 0.8
Total 2.4
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−0.4 against our forecast)
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.4 of our 2.4.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 78%
Landed
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 53%
Landed
Outside shot
Elche or draw
Pre-match: 27%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.