FT · SPAIN: LaLiga · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Deportivo 3–1 ValenciaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 30 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Deportivo at 34%, draw at 28%, Valencia at 39%. Against expectation, the match finished 3-1. The model's headline call was Valencia to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Deportivo win
34%
Actual ✓
Draw
28%
Valencia win
39%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.28 – 1.39
Total 2.67
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+1.3 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.3 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 75%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 28%
✗ Lost