How it finished
Toronto FC beat Nashville SC 2–1. Bawler's model favoured Nashville SC at 44% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Toronto FC 28%. It forecast 2.5 goals and the match produced 3. Toronto FC had 16 shots (7 on target) to Nashville SC's 11 (5), with 42% of the ball against 58%. Expected goals finished 1.8 to 0.9.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 56%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Toronto FC vs Nashville SC?
Toronto FC beat Nashville SC 2–1. Bawler's model favoured Nashville SC at 44% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Toronto FC 28%. It forecast 2.5 goals and the match produced 3. Toronto FC had 16 shots (7 on target) to Nashville SC's 11 (5), with 42% of the ball against 58%. Expected goals finished 1.8 to 0.9.
What was the final score in Toronto FC vs Nashville SC?
Toronto FC 2–1 Nashville SC, played on 10 Sept 2026 in the USA: MLS. Bawler's model had gone into it with Toronto FC 28%, the draw 28% and Nashville SC 44%.
What were the stats in Toronto FC vs Nashville SC?
Full-time: Possession 42%–58%, Expected goals (xG) 1.8–0.9, Shots 16–11, Shots on target 7–5, Shots inside box 13–8, Big chances 3–1, Corners 3–8, Saves 5–5, Fouls 9–10, Offsides 1–6, Yellow cards 1–0.
Did both teams score in Toronto FC vs Nashville SC?
Yes — both Toronto FC and Nashville SC scored, finishing 2–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 51% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Toronto FC vs Nashville SC right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Nashville SC or draw 72%, it finished Toronto FC won (28% called); Total goals — we said 2.5, it finished 3; Both teams to score — we said 51%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 72%, it finished Landed.