FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Nashville SC 4–0 FC CincinnatiMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 30 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Nashville SC at 54%, draw at 23%, FC Cincinnati at 23%. The match ended 4-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Nashville SC.
> Pre-match probability vs result
SC win
54%
Actual ✓
Draw
23%
Cincinnati win
23%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.00 – 1.26
Total 3.26
Actual
4 – 0
Total 4 (+0.7 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 0.7 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 84%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 54%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 37%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals dominates the forecast at 84% probability, backed by Nashville's 0.74 expected-goal advantage and Mukhtar's playmaking anchoring a 2.00 xG output at home."