FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 27 September 2026
Nashville SC 2–0 Toronto FCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 27 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Nashville SC at 58%, draw at 24%, Toronto FC at 18%. The match ended 2-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Nashville SC.
> Pre-match probability vs result
SC win
58%
Actual ✓
Draw
24%
FC win
18%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.83 – 0.94
Total 2.77
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (-0.8 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.8 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 82%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 52%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 30%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Nashville's 0.89 expected-goals advantage and creator Hany Mukhtar's 26% share of team chances drive the 1X forecast to 82%, with the hosts' 1.83 xG rendering a draw or home win the model's high-confidence call."