FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Nashville SC 3–2 Columbus CrewMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 23 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Nashville SC at 47%, draw at 27%, Columbus Crew at 26%. The match ended 3-2 — confirming the model's lean toward Nashville SC.
> Pre-match probability vs result
SC win
47%
Actual ✓
Draw
27%
Crew win
26%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.56 – 1.12
Total 2.68
Actual
3 – 2
Total 5 (+2.3 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 2.3 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 75%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
1X
Pre-match: 74%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 28%
✓ Won