FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Nashville SC 3–2 Columbus CrewMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Nashville SC or draw at 74%. Bawler had Nashville SC at 47%, the draw at 27% and Columbus Crew at 26%. The match finished 3–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Nashville SC win
47%
Result
Draw
27%
Columbus Crew win
26%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.1
Total 2.7
Actual
3 – 2
Total 5 (+2.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.8 – 0.4
From the match itself
The match produced 2.3 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 75%
Landed
Medium confidence
Nashville SC or draw
Pre-match: 74%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 28%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.