How it finished
Swansea City beat Burnley 3–1. Bawler's model favoured Burnley at 38% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Swansea City 33%. It forecast 2.6 goals; the match produced 4. Swansea City had 14 shots (7 on target) to Burnley's 18 (6), with 54% of the ball against 46%. Expected goals finished 2.4 to 1.8.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 67%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Common questions
Who won Swansea City vs Burnley?
Swansea City beat Burnley 3–1. Bawler's model favoured Burnley at 38% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Swansea City 33%. It forecast 2.6 goals; the match produced 4. Swansea City had 14 shots (7 on target) to Burnley's 18 (6), with 54% of the ball against 46%. Expected goals finished 2.4 to 1.8.
What was the final score in Swansea City vs Burnley?
Swansea City 3–1 Burnley, played on 12 Sept 2026 in the England: Championship. Bawler's model had gone into it with Swansea City 33%, the draw 28% and Burnley 38%.
What were the stats in Swansea City vs Burnley?
Full-time: Possession 54%–46%, Expected goals (xG) 2.4–1.8, Shots 14–18, Shots on target 7–6, Shots inside box 10–11, Big chances 4–4, Corners 3–6, Saves 5–3, Fouls 7–7, Offsides 4–4, Yellow cards 2–1.
Did both teams score in Swansea City vs Burnley?
Yes — both Swansea City and Burnley scored, finishing 3–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 52% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Swansea City vs Burnley right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Burnley or draw 67%, it finished Swansea City won (33% called); Total goals — we said 2.6, it finished 4; Both teams to score — we said 52%, it finished Yes.