FT · England: Championship · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Swansea City 0–0 WrexhamMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 05 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Swansea City at 42%, draw at 28%, Wrexham at 30%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-0. The model's headline call was Swansea City to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
City win
42%
Draw
28%
Actual ✓
Wrexham win
30%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.43 – 1.19
Total 2.61
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (-2.6 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.6 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 74%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Swansea's xG edge of 0.31 combined with Wrexham's nothing-to-play-for status tilts this fixture toward goal activity, making Over 1.5 Goals the model's 72% call."