FT · England: Championship · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Lincoln City 1–2 Swansea CityMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 19 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Lincoln City at 45%, draw at 28%, Swansea City at 27%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-2. The model's headline call was Lincoln City to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
City win
45%
Draw
28%
City win
27%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.41 – 1.03
Total 2.44
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.6 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.6 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 73%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 23%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 73% because Lincoln's 1.41 expected goals at home combines with Swansea's modest 1.17 defensive xG to suggest a low-scoring but open contest."