What we expect
In plain English
Millwall are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. The model expects them to create around half a goal more per game than Swansea City, and Swansea City have not beaten them in their last five meetings. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
Millwall or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Millwall vs Swansea City?
Bawler's model rates this match: Millwall are favoured (48% win probability vs 26% for Swansea City, 26% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Millwall vs Swansea City?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Millwall 1-1 Swansea City (12.1% probability). Expected total goals: 2.84.
How does Bawler predict Millwall vs Swansea City?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Millwall 48%, the draw 26% and Swansea City 26%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Millwall vs Swansea City?
BTTS: Yes (56% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.67 and away expected goals 1.16.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Millwall vs Swansea City?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.84. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).