What we expect
In plain English
Burnley should get at least a draw here. The model expects them to create around half a goal more per game than Charlton Athletic, and Charlton Athletic have not beaten them in their last five meetings. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
Burnley or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Burnley vs Charlton Athletic?
Bawler's model rates this match: Burnley are favoured (55% win probability vs 20% for Charlton Athletic, 25% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Burnley vs Charlton Athletic?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Burnley 1-1 Charlton Athletic (12.0% probability). Expected total goals: 2.67.
How does Bawler predict Burnley vs Charlton Athletic?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Burnley 55%, the draw 25% and Charlton Athletic 20%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Charlton Athletic?
BTTS: Yes (50% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.72 and away expected goals 0.95.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Burnley vs Charlton Athletic?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.67. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).