FT · ENGLAND: Championship · Wednesday, 02 September 2026
Burnley 1–1 MiddlesbroughMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Wednesday, 02 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Burnley at 37%, draw at 28%, Middlesbrough at 35%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was Burnley to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Burnley win
37%
Draw
28%
Actual ✓
Middlesbrough win
35%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.33 – 1.28
Total 2.61
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-0.6 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.6 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 73%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost